The November edition of Eggs & Issues featured Charles Franklin from Marquette Law School on November 17th, 7:00 a.m. at CVTC. Franklin is a Professor at Marquette Law School and the director of the Marquette Law School Poll. The discussion was based on the upcoming election and an analysis of what the polls are predicting. This is the fifth time Franklin has done election analysis for the Eggs & Issues event.

 

Franklin started his discussion by updating attendees with the new methodology of the poll. Based on recent years, they have changed how they conducted the poll. Respondents found that answering the poll online is the easiest (on a laptop, phone, tablet, etc). From this, they conducted a hybrid poll on October 26th to November 2nd with a total of 908 Wisconsin registered voters. Franklin mentioned the margin of error was 4.5 percentage points. The makeup of the poll is 30% Republican, 29% Democrats, and 41% independents. Franklin also mentions that the party made up of independents seems like an extensive amount, however if you ask if they think of themselves as closer to the republican/democratic party it changes the numbers. The results after this come to Republicans 45%, Democrats 44%, and Independents 9-11%.

 

Franklin then moved onto Biden vs Trump trends. He has concluded from the polls that there is a 2 point average lead from candidates. Franklin mentions how reading the polls can look confusing and look all over the place. He says "sometimes the red line is up [Trump] and sometimes the blue line [Biden] is up." Franklin said the focus is on who has the support, why they have the support and what issues are currently boosting or decreasing one candidate votes vs the other. However, at this time, it is uncertain to tell who is in the lead or who is predicted to win. 

As of right now, Trump is winning 88% of the Republican vote and Biden is winning 94% of the Democratic vote. However when you replace Trump with other alternate party nominees such as DeSantis, DeSantis is winning 91% of the Republican vote. Other nominees can influence the percentage of favorability for candidates. Franklin also mentioned how in the 2020 election, Wisconsin was the tipping point for the Electoral College. Other swing states Franklin mentioned include: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.

With just one year away, some voters are still reluctant on their choice. 40% of Trump voters and 39% of Biden voters say they will "probably" vote for their preferred candidate. However, there is an extremely low indubitable voters. 12% of voters say they will definitely vote for Biden or Trump with a break up of 6% of Trump voters and 6% of Biden voters. Some of this may fall into the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.

Overall, with the 2 point average lead, Charles Franklin concludes it is still far too early to tell which way the Presidential Election will go. As November of 2024 approaches, it may become more clear as to who is in the lead, and which direction the election may go. Again, Wisconsin is a swing state meaning up until the Election, there is no telling which way it will lean.

 

More Information: 

Marquette Law School Poll Director discusses political climate in Wisconsin at Chamber's Eggs & Issues breakfast (WEAU 13 News)

Marquette Professor Charles Franklin speaks on Wisconsin 2024 election polls (Leader-Telegram $)

Charles Franklin Marquette Poll 111723

 

Posted by Leah Brawdy, Governmental Affairs Intern
brawdy@eauclairechamber.org